So Was It All Just A Fix? Really?

By: Rob | March 18th, 2008

So a couple of days ago, news leaked that the Champions League draw might have been fixed. I’ve stayed away from the story for a couple of reasons (drunken birthday celebrations, as well as not being entirely believing about the story). But maybe it is worth looking into it, just in case - the odds against guessing such a thing were more than 100/1 afterall.

Champions League QF Draw

So, the conspiricy is this - an hour before the Champions League QF draw, which was faithfully watched by yours truely someone annouced what the CL Draw was, and that it had been leaked. Your first guess is probably the same as UEFA’s, oh just a lucky guess. But it was 100% right, and the odds are pretty unlikely of guessing such a thing.

Except that everyone on the internet was guessing the draw and if you looked hard enough, I’m sure someone out there did the other combinations as well claiming them to be leaked - but obviously the innaccurate ones will be forgotten. With all the people on the internet guessing, the odds of one of them getting it right is extraordinarily likely, isn’t it?

The main, other point is that the bookies refused to take bets on the draw after a certain point. Well, Bookmakers wouldn’t need to have proof to stop taking bets - if alot of people started betting a certain way (ie, they had seen something posted on a popular forum) in a short space of time, they would stop taking bets just in case, as a precaution. Again, it doesn’t have to be a big thing, they just want to watch thier backs in case it is, or in case alot of people get it right because they think it is.

The other thing is, well, how? I sort of watched the draw, the picture actually cut out for me half-way through, but you will all know yourselves what a draw is like. How could the fix it? They are in a big room in front of representitives of all the clubs involved (suggesting either they are all in on it - and frankly someone would be upset by the draw in that scenario - or they are conning the clubs right before thier very eyes, like a peverse street magician) and they are drawing names out of a hat basically. It would be extraordinarily complicated to get that right surely? And even then there is room for error.

The last nail in the consiricy coffin is - why would they fix it that way. Last year, the Man United/Roma QF was an all-round embarresement for UEFA. The scoreline of the second leg mad ethe CL seem less competitive than it used to be, and the policing led to a nightmarish scenario inside Rome, where a hell of alot of people got hurt. Frankly I imagine they would want to avoid that draw again in the near future.

Why would they also draw Barca and Chelsea against small sides? Surely pitting them up against each other (or Barca against Man United, which surely was the neutrals dream draw?) would have made for a far more exciting time? As it is, they’ve all but guarenteed an English side in the final - assuming Fenerbahce can’t do something incredible - and may have got themselves an all-english final. Lovely for English fans, but how much of the rest of Europe would tune in?

I dunno. I like a good conspiricy, but this one just doesn’t hold any weight - for me at least.